• Trump suspends strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure, easing pressure on risk assets.
• Bitcoin returns above $70,000 amid renewed risk appetite as geopolitical tensions ease.
• Sentiment remains in extreme fear territory, with slow inflows into digital investment products weighing.
• Nearly $100 million in token unlocks this week, led by a $48 million Toncoin release, could drive market volatility.

The cryptocurrency market is generally rising on Monday after United States (US) President Donald Trump instructed the Department of War to suspend planned attacks on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure.

A 3% increase in market capitalisation to $2.53 trillion, as shown by CoinGecko data, reflects the immediate impact of easing geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin (BTC) is back above $70,000, Ethereum (ETH) above $2,100, and Ripple (XRP) has reclaimed $1.40 as immediate support.

US suspends Iran strikes amid talks

President Trump is optimistic about ongoing discussions with the Iranian regime, as the Middle East war enters its fourth week. Prior to Trump’s post on Truth Social on Monday, the US had announced targeted strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure unless the chokepoint in the Strait of Hormuz is removed.

“The United States and Iran have had productive discussions over the past two days toward fully resolving hostilities in the Middle East. As talks continue this week, I’ve ordered a five-day pause on any military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, contingent on progress,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Iran had issued a stern warning that it would strike energy and desalination infrastructure across the Gulf region if the US and Israel carried on with the planned attacks.

Despite the suspension, geopolitical tensions will likely remain high until the US and Iran reach an unacceptable agreement. Oil prices remain high despite adjusting to $89 on Monday from near $100. Sustained high energy prices could have a lasting negative impact on the global economy.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that global inflation could rise amid slow economic growth, with countries that rely heavily on Oil from the Gulf region suffering the most.

Bitcoin’s surge above $70,000

Bitcoin holds above $70,000 from a daily low of $67,445, supported by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This level would continue to play a critical role in the crypto king’s short-term outlook. Sustained closing above $70,000 could keep risk appetite elevated while affirming a high probability of prices moving to the $80,000 level. Still, decisive closings below the same $70,000 pivotal level could lead to investor exhaustion and a sustained correction targeting the lower $60,000s.

Weak sentiment prevails amid cooling capital inflows

Risk appetite for crypto assets remains significantly low, according to the Fear & Greed Index, which has largely remained in the extreme fear territory since the beginning of the year.

Extreme fear can indicate that investors are too worried. On the flip side, such periods could present an opportunity to buy when prices are low and ride the wave up before the market overheads or overextends.

Meanwhile, inflows into crypto investment products slowed to $230 million last week, according to a CoinShares report. Approximately $405 million in outflows were recorded following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to leave rates unchanged and the central bank’s hawkish stance on the possibility of easing its monetary policy in 2026.

“Digital asset investment products recorded US$230m in inflows last week, marking a notable slowdown compared to prior weeks. While the prevailing view attributes this to the increasingly protracted Iran conflict weighing on sentiment, we believe the more likely cause is the market’s 'hawkish pause' interpretation of the US Federal Reserve’s Wednesday meeting,” CoinShares report states.

Potential supply shock ahead of $100 million token unlocks

Several token unlock events, totalling nearly $100 million, are expected this week. Toncoin (TON) will experience the largest unlock, worth $48 million, on Tuesday. This accounts for 10.3% of the market capitalisation.

Other token unlocks of interest for investors include River’s (RIVER) approximately $26 million and Celetias’ (TIA) $94,000, both on Monday. Walrus Protocol’s $29 million on Friday and Jupiter’s (JUP) $8 million on Saturday, among others.

Token unlocks are considered scheduled supply shocks, which can result in higher volatility. Anticipatory selling can occur before the events. However, the exact impact of the unlocks is nuanced, with instances of pricing in effects.