• The BoE held rates in an 8-1 vote last week, with some policymakers signalling openness to hikes at the next meeting.
• A bare UK economic calendar this week leaves Sterling exposed to broader risk sentiment after Thursday's BoE decision.
• Friday's US NFP looms as the key Dollar catalyst, with markets bracing for a sharp jobs slowdown to 60K from 178K.

GBP/USD declined around 0.35% on Monday, settling near 1.3530 after a sharp rejection from the 1.3600 handle dragged the pair lower through choppy afternoon trade. Price had peaked above 1.3650 during Friday's NY session, but Monday's broad-based drift carved a session low close to 1.3510 as last week's bullish momentum waned.

On the Pound side, last week's Bank of England (BoE) decision saw the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote 8-1 to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75%, with Chief Economist Huw Pill the lone dissenter in favour of a 25 basis point hike. Four other MPC members signalled openness to hikes at upcoming meetings if energy shocks intensify, keeping crude oil dynamics central to the policy outlook. The UK economic calendar is notably bare this week, leaving Cable exposed to broader risk sentiment and US Dollar flows in the absence of domestic catalysts.

For the US Dollar, the week's main event is Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) print, where consensus pencils in just 60K jobs added against the prior 178K reading and the unemployment rate seen holding at 4.3%. Earlier in the week, Tuesday's Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI and JOLTS Job Openings, alongside Wednesday's ADP private payrolls release, will provide preliminary signals on the labour market. A soft headline payroll print could weigh on the Dollar and lend Cable some support in the absence of UK catalysts.

GBP/USD 15-minute chart

Technical Analysis

In the fifteen-minute chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3532. The pair holds a bearish intraday bias as it trades below the day’s open at 1.3582, indicating sustained selling pressure from the European session. The Stochastic RSI has retreated from overbought to mid-range readings near 47, hinting that downside momentum is moderating but not yet suggesting a decisive bullish reversal.

On the topside, the day’s open at 1.3582 acts as the first notable resistance, and a recovery above this level would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a deeper corrective bounce. With no clear nearby technical supports from moving averages or other levels in the dataset, any fresh lows below the current price would leave the pair vulnerable to further extension lower until a new demand zone is established on the chart.

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3532. The pair maintains a constructive bias as spot holds above both the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3456 and the 200-day EMA at 1.3367, keeping the broader uptrend supported despite the recent consolidation. The Stochastic RSI has retreated toward the mid-range near 49, hinting that upside momentum is cooling but not yet reversing, which suggests scope for continued range-bound gains while price stays anchored above these key averages.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the 50-day EMA around 1.3456, with the 200-day EMA at 1.3367 reinforcing a deeper but still constructive demand zone if sellers press lower. With no immediate overhead technical barriers highlighted by the current moving-average setup, bulls may retain control in the near term, but a decisive drop below 1.3367 would undermine the positive structure and expose a more pronounced corrective phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)