United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD is edging higher after a period of tight consolidation, with intraday upside seen as limited below nearby resistance. While short-term momentum has turned up, the bank still flags increased risk of a break under 1.2890 on a 1–3 week horizon, even as longer-term weekly signals point to potential strength toward 1.3095.

Upward bias capped below resistance

"24-HOUR VIEW: While we noted yesterday that “there has been a slight increase in downward momentum,” we pointed out that “this is likely to lead to USD trading in a lower range of 1.2900/1.2935 rather than a sustained decline.” USD then traded between 1.2906 and 1.2934, closing largely unchanged at 1.2929 (+0.04%). This time around, there has been a slight increase in upward momentum. Today, USD could edge higher, but it is unlikely to break above 1.2955. Note that there is another resistance at 1.2940. Support is at 1.2920 and 1.2910."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After expecting USD to trade in a range for about a week, we highlighted yesterday (07 Jul, spot at 1.2915) that “downward momentum has ticked up, and the risk of USD breaking below 1.2890 is increasing.” We added, “a breach of 1.2955 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that USD is likely to continue to trade in a range.” There is no change in our view"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)