Francesco Pesole at ING expects Japan’s CPI to slow further due to subsidies, though core‑core inflation should stay above 2%, keeping the Bank of Japan (BoJ) cautious about ruling out further hikes. He sees USD/JPY rebounding and potentially breaking 160.0 in coming days, but notes authorities may be reluctant to intervene in such a volatile market environment.

BoJ caution and intervention threshold

"Japan’s CPI, released tonight, should slow further in February thanks to the government’s energy subsidy, indicating that the pre‑crisis disinflation trend continued."

"Still, core‑core inflation should remain well above 2%."

"With energy prices likely to rise again, inflation may pick up in the coming months, keeping the Bank of Japan cautious and unwilling to rule out further hikes."

"USD/JPY rebounded sharply on Friday, and we think 160.0 can easily be broken in the coming days."

"That was probably the line in the sand for FX interventions before the war, but there is an obvious disincentive to intervene in a volatile market."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)