• WTI Crude Oil neared $100 in spot markets as Trump rejected Iran's peace offer.
• Trump dismissed Tehran's peace plan and called the ceasefire 'unbelievably weak,' reigniting Hormuz supply fears.
• Aramco CEO warned of around 100 million barrels of weekly supply loss, with normalization risking delay into 2027.

Wednesday's EIA inventory data will test how tight US crude supply has become amid the prolonged Hormuz closure.

WTI Crude Oil climbed about 3.3% on Tuesday, extending a multi-day rally that pushed price toward the $100 round figure in spot markets. The session printed a steady stepwise advance through European and US trade, marking a high close to $99.40 before consolidating around $98.70 just below the triple-digit level.

The Tuesday rally followed President Trump's rejection of Tehran's latest peace proposal, which he dismissed as 'garbage' while warning the existing ceasefire was on 'life support.' Reports suggested Trump is preparing to meet with his national security team to consider renewed military action and to discuss escorting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, further reducing the likelihood of a near-term reopening. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned this week that the global market is losing roughly 100 million barrels of supply each week, adding that any return to normal conditions could slip into 2027 if disruptions persist.

Looking ahead, Wednesday's weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report will give markets a fresh read on US crude supply tightness amid the prolonged Hormuz closure, with last week's draw coming in lighter than expected at 2.3 million barrels against forecasts of 3.3 million. Traders will also watch this week's US-China dialogue for any signal that Beijing might lean on Tehran to accept Washington's terms, while Wednesday's US Producer Price Index (PPI) release offers a secondary lens on the oil shock's inflation feed-through.

WTI (spot) 15-minute chart

Technical Analysis

In the fifteen-minute chart, WTI US Oil trades at $98.30. The near-term bias stays bullish as prices hold well above the day’s open at $95.14, keeping the intraday structure underpinned despite the latest pullback from recent highs. The Stochastic RSI hovers around 42, pointing to neutral-to-moderate momentum and suggesting the market is consolidating rather than reversing decisively lower at this stage.

On the downside, immediate support is anchored at the psychological $98.30 area, with additional backing coming from the day’s open at $95.14, which marks a deeper intraday floor if selling extends. With no nearby technical resistance levels defined by moving averages or other indicators in this snapshot, traders may look to price action around these supports for cues on whether the bullish intraday bias can be maintained.

In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at $98.66. The contract holds a bullish near-term bias as price trades decisively above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at roughly $90.30 and the 200-day EMA near $74.81, keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the recent pullback from the $105 area. However, the Stochastic RSI has rolled over toward the 40 region, hinting that upside momentum is cooling and that the market could consolidate or retrace before attempting another sustained advance.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the recent price pivot around $98.66, with a deeper cushion at the 50-day EMA near $90.30 if selling pressure accelerates. A more substantial structural floor emerges at the 200-day EMA around $74.81, where longer-term buyers would likely defend the trend if a larger correction unfolds.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)