• AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a weaker note, snapping a two-day winning streak.
• The mixed technical setup warrants caution before placing aggressive directional bets.
• A convincing break below the 200-day SMA is needed to confirm a negative outlook.

The AUD/USD pair meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Monday and, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak to the 0.6950 region, or a one-and-a-half-week high touched on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.6920 area, down 0.20% for the day, as tensions over the Strait of Hormuz drive some safe-haven flows towards the US Dollar (USD).

The AUD/USD pair fails near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 2025-May 2026 rally, stalling its recovery from a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), or a three-month low set last week. The latter is near the 50% retracement level, suggesting a constructive near-term bias as long as these supports remain intact. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned slightly positive, hinting at recovering upside momentum.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 39 still reflects only modest demand after the recent pullback. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying and a sustained strength  beyond the 38.2% Fibo. hurdle near 0.6950 before traders start positioning for any further near-term appreciating move for the AUD/USD pair. The 23.6% retracement at 0.7077 could act as the next notable barrier if buyers extend the advance.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-day SMA around 0.6869, followed by the 50.0% retracement near 0.6851. A convincing break below this area would expose deeper Fibonacci supports at 0.6750 and 0.6607 before the broader base around 0.6424.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

AUD/USD daily chart