BoJ’s Takata: Pace of future hikes will depend on economic, price, market developments

Key quotes

Difficult to determine now the desirable pace of rate hike and terminal rate.

Pace of future rate hikes will depend on economic, price, market developments at the time.

Overseas developments are also important in judging rate-hike timing, terminal rate.

There is no pre-set pace of rate hike, depends on future economic environment and data.

Do not think we are behind the curve now.

Want to ensure BoJ does not fall behind the curve in addressing inflation risks.

There are pros and cons to weak yen.

Want to decide based on economic developments at the time, when asked whether he will continue to propose rate hike in each upcoming policy meeting.

Welcome government efforts to lift growth through growth strategy and stimulus policies, which BoJ can support with policy.

Bank of Japan must also be mindful of achieving price goal in sustainable fashion.

In exceptional cases where risk premium becomes too high, Bank of Japan must be ready to take action such as through market operations.

Market reaction

As of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.35% lower on the day at 155.90.

Japanese Yen FAQs

What key factors drive the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen?

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen?

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

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