TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team expects a muted rebound in Canadian labour markets, forecasting only 10k new jobs in March and an unemployment rate of 6.8%. The bank notes elevated uncertainty and weak hiring intentions should limit the recovery after February’s large job losses, while wage growth for permanent workers is seen edging up to 4.3% y/y.

Muted Canadian jobs rebound projected

"We look for a muted rebound in CAD employment with just 10k jobs created in March as a larger increase for labour supply drives the unemployment rate 0.1pp higher to 6.8% (market: +15k, 6.8%, respectively)."

"Mean reversion would typically support a larger rebound from the 84k jobs lost in February but the combination of elevated uncertainty and muted hiring intentions should weigh on the recovery."

"February's pullback was also broadly based, without any large one-off declines to unwind in March. We look for muted job creation across both goods and services, while wage growth for permanent workers should see a modest 0.1pp increase to 4.3% y/y."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)