• The Canadian Dollar remains supported by the surge in Oil prices linked to Middle East tensions.
• A stronger-than-expected US jobs report provides limited support to the US Dollar.
• Markets remain focused on the Strait of Hormuz conflict and its potential impact on global inflation.

USD/CAD trades on a flat note around 1.3670 on Monday, down modestly by 0.05% on the day at the time of writing. The US Dollar (USD) finds some support after Friday’s stronger-than-expected US employment report, but gains in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are limiting the pair’s upside amid higher Oil prices.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 115K jobs in April, compared with 185K in March after revision, beating market expectations of 62K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.3%, in line with consensus forecasts. The data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could remain cautious regarding additional monetary easing.

MUFG noted that the rebound in the US Dollar is being supported both by persistent geopolitical tensions and by the stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The bank also believes that the latest developments favor the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged.

However, support for the Greenback remains limited by the rally in Crude Oil prices, which continues to underpin the Canadian Dollar. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price climbs toward $94.60 per barrel after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal aimed at ending the conflict with Israel and the United States (US).

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Sunday that the conflict with Iran was “not over,” fueling fears of renewed escalation in the Middle East. Persistent tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to raise concerns over global energy supplies and support commodity-linked currencies such as the Loonie.

OCBC nevertheless noted that the US Dollar remains highly sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment and Oil price dynamics, even after stronger US economic data. The bank expects the US Dollar Index (DXY) to remain broadly rangebound in the near term.