Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao sees upside risks to China’s Q1 2026 GDP versus the bank’s 4.6% forecast, supported by resilient exports and front‑loaded public investment. Industrial production is projected to grow 5.5% year‑on‑year, while retail sales slow to 2.5%. The bank warns that secondary shocks from the Iran war could later erode China’s export advantage and prompt further policy easing.

Resilient activity but external risks linger

"We expect China to report a Q1 GDP growth of 4.6% yoy."

"China’s Q1 GDP faces upside risks to our 4.6% forecast, supported by resilient exports and front-loaded public investment."

"We expect March industrial production to grow 5.5% as activity remains firm."

"Looking ahead, we maintain a cautious stance on the economic outlook for the remainder of 2026. The primary risk to China does not stem from direct inflation but rather from the secondary impacts of the Iran war."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)