EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests ascending channel lower boundary near 176.50

• EUR/JPY could slip below the lower boundary of the channel around 176.50.
• The 14-day Relative Strength Index of 27.00 signals oversold conditions.
• The initial barrier lies at the nine-day EMA at 178.27.

EUR/JPY continues its losing streak for the seventh consecutive day, trading around 176.70 during Asian hours on Monday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross is testing the lower boundary of the descending channel, suggesting the price could either hold support and trigger a temporary bounce toward the channel's upper limits, or break below it to signal accelerating downward momentum in a steeper downtrend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 27.00 signals oversold conditions that could slow the decline but do not yet challenge the prevailing negative bias. The EUR/JPY cross is maintaining a bearish near-term tone as it sits beneath both the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMAs). The pair’s slide below these key averages suggests downside pressure dominates.

A successful break below the lower boundary of the channel around 176.50, followed by an 11-month low of 175.70, recorded in November 2025. Further support lies at the 14-month low of 169.72.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may rebound toward the nine-day EMA at 178.27, followed by the 50-day EMA at 181.34. Further resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel around 184.40, followed by the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.

BoJ flags AI as a new positive demand shock for the Yen

BoJ's Uchida speech scores 7.2 on FXS Speechtracker, exactly in line with Uchida's historic average, signaling a stable tone rather than an escalation in policy urgency. The emphasis on AI as a major positive demand shock, pushing up economic activity, prices, and long-term rates via equity gains and bond issuance, tilts the message modestly hawkish for the Yen as it highlights upside risks to inflation and financial conditions.

By stressing that AI affects output gaps, financial conditions, and key "star" variables, Uchida effectively frames AI as a structural force that could justify tighter policy over time if demand-side effects dominate. The caution about correction risks if profits disappoint tempers the hawkish bias, but the commitment to closely monitor AI-driven indicators keeps the balance of risks skewed toward gradual normalization rather than renewed easing, mildly supportive of the Yen.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)