• EUR/CAD appreciates as the Euro rises ahead of the Eurozone and German HCOB PMI data releases.
• Euro could struggle amid cooling inflation, leaving traders pricing in just a one-third chance of a July ECB rate hike.
• The commodity-linked CAD faces headwinds as oil prices decline following US-Iran diplomatic breakthroughs.

EUR/CAD gains ground for the second successive day, trading around 1.6230 during the European hours on Friday. The currency cross appreciates as the Euro (EUR) rises ahead of the release of HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Germany and the Eurozone later in the day.

However, the Euro may face headwinds as easing inflation brings the Eurozone closer to price stability, with traders pricing in roughly one-third odds of a July European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike.

The EUR/CAD cross may further appreciate as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces challenges as global oil prices decline. Crude oil prices decline amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, sparked by a series of diplomatic breakthroughs between the US and Iran.

Doha negotiations, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, have successfully lowered the geopolitical risk premium that previously kept energy prices elevated. For Canada, these cheaper oil prices are reducing energy-driven inflation, which in turn reinforces market expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) could adopt a more dovish monetary policy stance moving forward.

Canada’s domestic manufacturing sector showed a modest sign of resilience. The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index edged up slightly to 53 in June, compared to 52.9 in May. While this points to a continuing but gentle expansion in manufacturing activity, it hasn't been enough to offset the broader drag from the slumping oil market. As a result, the Canadian Dollar remains vulnerable against its American counterpart.