Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep its policy rate at 5.25%, but warns of a potential hawkish surprise aimed at supporting the Rupee. Haddad notes that aggressive RBI intervention, official jawboning and lower Oil prices have already pulled USD/INR back from record highs, helping to stabilise the currency after recent weakness.

Policy hold with hawkish risk

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to keep the policy rate at 5.25% for a third consecutive meeting (Friday)."

"USD/INR has already dipped from a record high of around 97.0000 on May 20 to 95.0000 on Friday driven by aggressive RBI intervention, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra jawboning, and a slide in crude oil prices."

"The risk is a hawkish surprise to further curtail INR weakness."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)