Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur highlights that USD/JPY has climbed back above 160, near multi-decade highs, even as Japan’s current account surplus has improved to its highest level since 1996 and 5.6% of GDP. Stronger foreign investment income and better trade in goods and services underpin fundamentals, but near-term JPY moves remain driven by the Iran conflict and Oil prices.

Improving fundamentals, soft currency

"Yesterday, USD/JPY once again rose above 160, coming within striking distance of a new multi-year high."

"At the same time, however, data on Japan’s current account balance showed that the fundamental situation for the JPY continues to improve."

"With a seasonally adjusted value of 4.2 trillion yen, the current account surplus rose in April to its highest level since the data series began in 1996."

"In the short term, however, the exchange rate will continue to be determined primarily by the Iran conflict and the price of oil."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)