• Fourth-quarter Retail Sales in New Zealand beat market expectations.
• The RBNZ maintains an accommodative tone after keeping its rate unchanged.
• The US Dollar stabilizes as markets monitor trade policy developments and Fed signals.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5965 on Monday at the time of writing, down 0.20% on the day, despite the release of stronger-than-expected consumption data in New Zealand.

Fourth-quarter Retail Sales rose 0.9% QoQ, above the 0.6% consensus forecast, but slower than the 1.9% increase recorded in the previous quarter. Retail Sales excluding Autos climbed 1.5% over the same period, following a 1.2% gain previously, confirming the resilience of domestic demand, particularly in discretionary spending.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintains a cautious stance. The RBNZ kept its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% last week, as expected, and signaled that monetary policy will remain accommodative as inflation is projected to return to the midpoint of its target range over the coming year. Markets only anticipate limited tightening by year-end, which reduces the scope for significant bullish repricing of the New Zealand Dollar.

On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes after facing pressure following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 15% global tariff in response to a US Supreme Court ruling regarding the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. This trade escalation revives concerns about US policy stability and weighs on investor sentiment.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 97.67 at the time of press, after touching an intraday low near 97.35. On the macroeconomic front, Factory Orders declined 0.7% MoM in December, missing expectations for a 1.1% increase, following a 2.7% rise previously, adding to doubts about growth momentum.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller expressed support for a 25-basis-point rate cut, citing signs of labor market weakness. He noted that labor demand has been falling faster than labor supply, suggesting that softness in employment conditions could persist.