• NZD/USD rises despite weaker-than-expected New Zealand economic growth data.
• US Dollar softness supports the pair, though upside may be limited by a hawkish Fed.
• Geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices fuel inflation expectations.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5840 on Thursday, up 0.73% on the day, rebounding after the previous day’s decline. The pair largely shrugs off disappointing GDP data from New Zealand, instead benefiting from a weaker US Dollar (USD).

Data released by Statistics New Zealand show that the economy expanded by 0.2% QoQ in the fourth quarter, below expectations of 0.4% and marking a slowdown from the 0.9% growth recorded in the previous quarter. On an annual basis, growth comes in at 1.3%, missing forecasts of 1.7%, although slightly higher than the prior reading. Despite these figures, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains resilient.

This support is mainly driven by a softer US Dollar, amid a more cautious market tone and fluctuations in yields and commodities. However, the downside in the Greenback may remain limited following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest meeting, which reinforces a restrictive stance. The US central bank left rates unchanged and rose its inflation projections, while signaling only limited rate cuts ahead.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, particularly due to rising energy costs linked to the ongoing Middle East war. This environment is further reinforced by disruptions in Gas and Oil supply, keeping prices elevated and sustaining inflation concerns.

In this context, analysts at ANZ warn that higher Oil prices could weigh on New Zealand’s economic outlook by increasing near-term inflationary pressures. This dynamic may cap further gains in the NZD, especially against a Fed that remains cautious about easing monetary policy.