Ripple Price Forecast: XRP risks losing the 50-day EMA support as exchange reserves rise

XRP decline puts immense pressure on the 50-day EMA support amid a broader crypto market sell-off.
The balance of XRP on Binance ticks up to 2.64 billion XRP from October lows near 2.60 billion, potentially propping up selling pressure.
Technically, XRP's path of least resistance remains downward, weighed down by a bearish RSI and a MACD sell signal.

Ripple (XRP) sellers are gaining ground on Thursday, as the token slips below $1.40. Sell-side pressure remains intense in the broader crypto market, as seen with leading digital assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) currently below $83,000 and Ethereum (ETH), sliding below $2,600. Despite the correction, XRP retains a constructive technical outlook, with support provided by a key moving average cluster.

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XRP exchange reserves expand amid muted ETF activity

The number of XRP balances on Binance exchange rose in the last few days to 2.64 billion XRP on Thursday, up from the October low of around 2.62 billion XRP. Sustained movement below the current 2.64-2.65 billion range would increase supply available for sale, potentially weighing on price action.

XRP Binance exchange reserves | Source: CryptoQuant

XRP spot ETFs continue to face erratic flows and muted activity. The ETFs remained muted on Wednesday after recording $3 million in outflows the day before. As demand for the remittance token takes a back seat, the path of least resistance will likely stay downward.

Nevertheless, cumulative inflows remain elevated at $1.79 billion, with total assets under management at $1.61 billion, underscoring institutional investors' long-term positive outlook on XRP.

Technical analysis: XRP sellers tighten grip

XRP edges lower below $1.40 as sell-side pressure deepens. Despite this week's correction, the remittance token still maintains a constructive near-term bias, holding above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.39 and the 200-day EMA at $1.38.

The 100-day EMA at $1.34 and the SuperTrend line at $1.30 reinforce a layered demand area beneath spot, suggesting dips could attract buying interest despite the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slipping further below zero and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) easing to a neutral-to-soft 43 level.

On the downside, initial support lies at the 50-day EMA around $1.39, ahead of deeper structural cushions at the 200-day EMA at $1.38 and the 100-day EMA at $1.34, while the SuperTrend line at $1.30 marks a more distant bullish threshold. On the topside, the focus remains on the descending resistance trendline, with a first barrier near its break region around $1.64 and a stronger cap at the trendline origin near $1.70, where sustained clearance would open the door to a more impulsive bullish phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Crypto ETF FAQs

What is an ETF?

An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.

Is Bitcoin futures ETF approved?

Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.

Is Bitcoin spot ETF approved?

Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.

Which are the pros and cons of crypto ETFs?

The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.

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