ING economists Min Joo Kang and Lynn Song expect the Bank of Korea to leave policy rates unchanged this week but to adopt a more hawkish tone. They see updated dot plots pointing to one or two rate hikes within six months, alongside upgraded GDP and CPI forecasts. Strong chip production and resilient activity data are expected to support South Korea’s growth outlook.

BoK seen steady but turning hawkish

"We expect the Bank of Korea to keep rates unchanged on Thursday, but signal a hawkish stance."

"Dot plots should indicate one or two rate hikes within six months, with the BoK upgrading its own GDP and CPI forecasts."

"At least one board member may vote for a rate hike at the meeting."

"Prices are likely to rise soon despite government measures, though the economy appears resilient to energy shocks."

"We expect robust chip production to boost overall industrial production, even with lower refinery and petrochemical output."

"The April monthly activity data should support our view."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)