Swiss Franc advances as US Dollar slips despite Fed rate hike odds
작성자 Akhtar Faruqui
수정됨: 14 Jul 2026
인기 기사
USD/CHF declines after two days of gains, trading around 0.8140 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Traders will likely observe the Swiss Producer and Import Prices data for June due later in the day.
- USD/CHF depreciates ahead of June’s Swiss Producer and Import Prices data release.
- The US Dollar may rebound on rising safe-haven demand and energy-driven inflation fears.
- The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 51% chance of a September Fed rate hike versus a 23% hold probability.
USD/CHF declines after two days of gains, trading around 0.8140 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Traders will likely observe the Swiss Producer and Import Prices data for June due later in the day.
However, the downside of the pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) could receive support from rising safe-haven demand due to escalating Middle East tensions. US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced new precision strikes on Iranian military targets, noting that over 50,000 US service members are currently deployed across the Middle East. Meanwhile, Iran’s IRGC stated that two "offending supertankers" were disabled in the Strait of Hormuz after ignoring warnings and using a mined route. Iran warned that cooperating with the US would delay the waterway's reopening and trigger a global energy crisis.
Hormuz tensions drive oil higher, stoking fears that energy-driven inflation will force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates elevated. Market expectations have shifted rapidly in response, with the CME FedWatch Tool now showing a 51% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, compared to just a 23% chance that rates will stay on hold.
US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled to be released on Tuesday. Analysts anticipate a divergence between a 0.1% month-on-month decline in headline inflation and a sticky 0.3% increase in the core reading. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver highly anticipated congressional testimony, a session that traders will dissect word-by-word for hints on whether the central bank will validate the market's growing hawkishness.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
100만 명이 넘는 사용자가 FXStreet를 통해 실시간 시장 데이터, 차트 도구, 전문가 인사이트, 포렉스 뉴스를 이용합니다. 포괄적인 경제 캘린더와 교육 웨비나는 트레이더가 정보를 유지하고 신중한 결정을 내리도록 돕습니다. FXStreet는 바르셀로나 본사와 전 세계 지역에 걸쳐 약 60명의 팀으로 구성되어 있습니다.
더 읽기
