TD Securities strategists highlight that the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes showed rising concern over inflation risks, even as the United States (US) labor market remains stable. Some participants saw a case for a June hike but backed holding rates, while most signaled willingness to pursue further policy firming if supply-side shocks, including Oil and tariffs, push inflation higher.

Fed minutes stress hawkish supply risks

"The June FOMC minutes showed participants concerned about rising inflation risks. "A few" participants saw the case for hiking in June, but still supported keeping rates on hold."

"The minutes also noted that the labor market remained stable, and that inflation risks were rising due to AI, tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and higher oil prices. However, in a hawkish development, "most" participants saw the case for "policy firming" if these supply issues raise inflation, even if the labor market remains stable."

"In other words, these participants would support hikes even if the labor market is not a source of inflation, and seemingly regardless of how inflation expectations evolve."

"A new closure of the Strait of Hormuz might be enough to achieve this scenario. On Fed communications, the "majority" supported the shortening of the statement. No further information on Chair Warsh's task forces was provided. Notably, the structure of the minutes was not altered."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)