Eurozone flash HICP data preview

The Eurozone preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for March is scheduled to be published today at 09:00 GMT.

According to preliminary estimates, the Eurostat will show that the headline HICP grew at a robust pace of 2.7% Year-on-Year (YoY) against 1.9% in February. Higher Eurozone inflation expectations are backed by surging oil prices due to the ongoing war in the Middle East.

Eurozone’s core HICP – which excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco – is estimated to have remained steady at 2.4% YoY.

Signs of higher inflationary pressures would prompt expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will turn hawkish in upcoming monetary policy meetings.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said in her speech at the ECB and its Watchers conference at Goethe University in Frankfurt last week that “the case for action becomes stronger when deviations from our inflation target grow larger and more persistent”. Lagarde added, “If the shock gives rise to a large though not-too-persistent overshoot of our target, some measured adjustment of policy could be warranted.”

Meanwhile, Middle East tensions have eased as United States (US) President Donald Trump has expressed readiness to end the war in Iran, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ); however, oil prices are expected to remain firm as Trump is willing for peace despite the Strait of Hormuz, a passage through which almost 20% of global energy is shipped, remaining closed.

How could Eurozone flash HICP data affect EUR/USD?

EUR/USD trades slightly higher at around 1.1468 as of writing. The near-term bias stays bearish, as spot continues to print lower highs and lower lows beneath the descending 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which now caps around 1.1570. The recent failure to sustain rebounds toward the 20-day EMA underscores persistent selling pressure, while RSI falling back below 40.00 signals the onset of weak momentum. As long as price holds under the 20-day average, rallies look corrective within a broader downside phase.

Initial resistance emerges at the 20-day EMA around 1.1570, followed by the March 23 high of around 1.1640. A daily close above the latter would weaken the bearish tone and open the way toward 1.1690. On the downside, immediate support aligns around 1.1460, just below the current market, with a break exposing 1.1415 as the next bearish target. Below 1.1415, the pair would risk accelerating toward the 1.1350 region.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)