UK Unemployment Rate rises to 5.2% vs. 5.1% estimates

Market reaction

Weak UK employment data has resulted in a sharp sell-off in the Pound Sterling (GBP). As of writing, GBP/USD is down 0.35% to near 1.3580.

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.13%	0.37%	-0.37%	0.10%	0.20%	0.04%	-0.01%
EUR	-0.13%		0.25%	-0.52%	-0.03%	0.07%	-0.10%	-0.14%
GBP	-0.37%	-0.25%		-0.75%	-0.27%	-0.17%	-0.33%	-0.38%
JPY	0.37%	0.52%	0.75%		0.48%	0.59%	0.42%	0.38%
CAD	-0.10%	0.03%	0.27%	-0.48%		0.11%	-0.05%	-0.11%
AUD	-0.20%	-0.07%	0.17%	-0.59%	-0.11%		-0.16%	-0.21%
NZD	-0.04%	0.10%	0.33%	-0.42%	0.05%	0.16%		-0.06%
CHF	0.00%	0.14%	0.38%	-0.38%	0.11%	0.21%	0.06%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

This section below was published at 05:20 GMT as a preview of the UK employment data for three months ending December.

The United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for the three months ending December is scheduled to be published today at 07:00 GMT.

According to estimates, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will show that the ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 5.1%, the highest level seen since quarter-ending January 2024. This would be the third straight time when the UK jobless rate is seen at 5.1%. Claimant Count Change is expected to have increased by 22.8K in January from 17.9K in December.

Investors will pay close attention to the UK labor market data to get fresh cues on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook.

In the employment report, investors will also focus on Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, which is expected to have risen at an annualized rate of 4.2%, slower than 4.5% in the three months ending in November. Average Earnings Including Bonuses is also estimated to have grown moderately. The wage growth measure is seen as lower at 4.6% against the previous release of 4.7%.

Signs of slowing wage growth and weak employment demand would prompt expectations of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in the near term, at times when policymakers are confident that price pressures would return to the 2% target in the second quarter this year.

How could UK employment data affect the GBP/USD

GBP/USD trades 0.16% lower to near 1.3610 at the press time. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slips to 1.3631 and caps rebounds as price holds below the gauge.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 (below the midline) underscores waning momentum.

Broadly, the pair demonstrates a sharp volatility contraction amid a Symmetrical Triangle formation. The upside remains capped near the downward-sloping border at 1.3675, while the downside remains supported near the advancing border at 1.3600.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Employment FAQs

How do employment levels affect currencies?

Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.

Why is wage growth important?

The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.

How much do central banks care about employment?

The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

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