Chinese Yuan loses as safe-haven demand lifts US Dollar

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USD/CNH gains ground for the second successive day, trading around 6.7760 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from escalating developments surrounding conflicts in the Middle East.

USD/CNH climbs as rising Middle East tensions drive investors toward the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset.
Iran told Houthi rebels to block the Red Sea oil route if the US attacks Iranian infrastructure.
Economists and an adviser say China can stabilize growth by fast-tracking already-budgeted national infrastructure projects this year.

Reuters reported on Thursday that Iran has instructed Yemen’s Houthi militia to stand ready to close the critical Red Sea oil route if the United States strikes Iranian power infrastructure, presenting a potent new threat to global energy supplies. Amplifying these concerns, the Tasnim news agency reported explosions in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, and Ahvaz, while very loud explosions were also heard in Kuwait and as far away as Basra.

These geopolitical flare-ups follow threats made earlier this week by US President Donald Trump, who stated the US would strike Iran's bridges and power plants next week if the country does not return to the negotiating table. Ultimately, these signs of escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar, potentially creating a strong tailwind for the USD/CNH pair in the near term.

China can stabilize its economic growth this year by fast-tracking already-budgeted national infrastructure projects, according to economists and a government adviser. This approach reduces the likelihood of large-scale fiscal stimulus. The strategy allows Beijing to counter an unexpected, broad decline in investment—which recent data showed has dragged down growth—while maintaining strict control over local government spending, per Reuters.

Risk sentiment FAQs

What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

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