EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bears seem hesitant as breakout above 1.1670 remains in play

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The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its weekly gains registered over the past four days and trades with a mild negative bias below the 1.1700 mark during the Asian session on Friday.

EUR/USD consolidates its weekly gains as Hormuz risks offer some support to the US Dollar.
The downside remains cushioned as traders await the latest US consumer inflation figures.
The technical setup favors bulls and backs the case for an extension of the weekly uptrend.

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its weekly gains registered over the past four days and trades with a mild negative bias below the 1.1700 mark during the Asian session on Friday. The downside, however, remains cushioned amid the lack of any meaningful US Dollar (USD) buying and ahead of the US consumer inflation figures, due later today.

In the meantime, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz offer some support to Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This, in turn, is seen acting as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and undermining the EUR/USD pair. However, hopes of Iran ceasefire stabilizing hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets ahead of the crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and offer some support to the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout through the 1.1670 confluence – comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March slide– favors the EUR/USD bulls. Moreover, momentum indicators underpin the constructive tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 58, while staying short of overbought conditions, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in positive territory.

Meanwhile, initial resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement around 1.1742, followed by the 61.8% Fibo. level at 1.1820, with further barriers at 1.1931 and the prior swing high region near 1.2072. On the downside, immediate support is located at the 200-day SMA at 1.1672 and the nearby 38.2% Fibo. retracement level at 1.1665, while deeper pullbacks would look toward the 23.6% level at 1.1568 and the March monthly swing low, just ahead of the 1.1400 round-figure mark.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD daily chart

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

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