EUR/USD Price Forecast: Trades cautiously higher near mid-1.1400s amid mixed setup
Oleh Haresh Menghani
Dikemas kini: 3 Jul 2026
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The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's modest pullback from the 1.1470-1.1475 region, or a nearly two-week high.
- EUR/USD gains positive traction for the second straight day amid a modest USD weakness.
- Receding bets for an interest rate hike by the Fed weigh on the USD and support the pair.
- The technical setup warrants some caution for bulls before positioning for additional gains.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's modest pullback from the 1.1470-1.1475 region, or a nearly two-week high. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-1.1400s and seem poised to register gains for the first time in three weeks as receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets keep the US Dollar (USD) depressed.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair struggled to find acceptance above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall and faced rejection near the ascending channel resistance on Thursday. Against the backdrop of the recent decline, the said upward-sloping channel constitutes the formation of a bearish flag pattern. This keeps a capped tone beneath the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, which reinforces the overhead supply zone.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators point to a mildly constructive backdrop. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just below 60, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is slightly positive. Nevertheless, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained strength above the 23.6% Fibo. level before placing fresh bullish bets on the EUR/USD pair and positioning for an extension of the recent recovery from the 1.1325 region, or the lowest level since May 2025.
The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the channel top at 1.1466. Above that, the 200-period EMA at 1.1516 and the 38.2% retracement at 1.1525 form a broader barrier ahead of deeper Fibonacci caps at 1.1587 and 1.1649. On the downside, the first notable support emerges at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.1371, with the previous channel starting area near 1.1325 acting as a secondary floor if bearish pressure extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.47% | -1.16% | -0.35% | -0.18% | -0.68% | -1.08% | -0.91% | |
| EUR | 0.47% | -0.75% | 0.13% | 0.26% | -0.23% | -0.67% | -0.50% | |
| GBP | 1.16% | 0.75% | 0.90% | 1.01% | 0.51% | 0.07% | 0.25% | |
| JPY | 0.35% | -0.13% | -0.90% | 0.16% | -0.34% | -0.64% | -0.59% | |
| CAD | 0.18% | -0.26% | -1.01% | -0.16% | -0.50% | -0.80% | -0.67% | |
| AUD | 0.68% | 0.23% | -0.51% | 0.34% | 0.50% | -0.43% | -0.26% | |
| NZD | 1.08% | 0.67% | -0.07% | 0.64% | 0.80% | 0.43% | 0.15% | |
| CHF | 0.91% | 0.50% | -0.25% | 0.59% | 0.67% | 0.26% | -0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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