GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Struggles below 212.00 as bears look to seize control

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The GBP/JPY cross attracts some follow-through selling for the second consecutive day and drops to a one-and-a-half-week low during the early European session on Friday. Spot prices, however, rebounded a few pips in the last hour and currently trade near the 211.75 region, down 0.25% for the day.

GBP/JPY drifts lower for the second straight day as UK political turmoil continues to weigh on the GBP.
Economic concerns due to Middle East tensions undermine the JPY and help limit losses for spot prices.
The technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for a further near-term depreciating move.

The British Pound (GBP) continues with its underperformance in the wake of the deepening UK political crisis and turns out to be a key factor weighing on the GBP/JPY cross. The downside, however, remains cushioned amid a broadly weaker Japanese Yen (JPY), led by concerns about economic risks stemming from the Middle East conflict and a firmer US Dollar (USD). This, in turn, holds back bearish traders from placing aggressive bets, though the technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.

The GBP/JPY cross holds beneath the 100-period Simple Moving average (SMA) and the nearby 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-April upswing. Moreover, clustered overhead resistance aligns at the 38.2% Fibo. at 212.97 and the 23.6% level at 214.32, suggesting rallies are likely to meet supply.

Momentum indicators also reinforce the negative tone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipping into oversold territory near 30 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero with a negative histogram. This, in turn, hints that downside pressure persists even if short-covering bounces emerge. Meanwhile, recovery attempts need first to reclaim the 50.0% retracement at 211.88 to ease immediate pressure, with further resistance at 212.97 and the 100-period SMA at 213.92, before the 23.6% retracement at 214.32 comes into view as a more distant cap.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 210.79, where buyers could attempt to slow the decline, ahead of a deeper support band at the 78.6% level at 209.23. A break below there would expose the prior swing low anchor at 207.26.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

GBP/JPY 4-hour chart

Japanese Yen Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.93%	1.41%	1.14%	0.50%	0.75%	1.30%	0.92%
EUR	-0.93%		0.46%	0.26%	-0.45%	-0.20%	0.32%	-0.02%
GBP	-1.41%	-0.46%		-0.72%	-0.92%	-0.69%	-0.13%	-0.48%
JPY	-1.14%	-0.26%	0.72%		-0.68%	-0.40%	0.16%	-0.18%
CAD	-0.50%	0.45%	0.92%	0.68%		0.33%	0.84%	0.41%
AUD	-0.75%	0.20%	0.69%	0.40%	-0.33%		0.56%	0.17%
NZD	-1.30%	-0.32%	0.13%	-0.16%	-0.84%	-0.56%		-0.38%
CHF	-0.92%	0.02%	0.48%	0.18%	-0.41%	-0.17%	0.38%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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