• Safe-haven demand for the US Dollar rises as President Trump signals potential escalation with Iran.
• Ongoing tensions and Iran’s reluctance to engage with the US pressure risk-sensitive currencies like the NZD.
• Upcoming ANZ Consumer Confidence and Activity Outlook reports could drive the next move in NZD/USD.

The NZD/USD pair fell to the 0.5720 region on Tuesday, March 31, maintaining a weak tone as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm amid the escalation of the Iran war and steady United States (US) yields.

The Greenback continues to draw support from safe-haven demand and rate differentials, particularly after President Donald Trump delivered agressive remarks on Iran, warning of potential escalation. At the same time, Iran’s reluctance to engage with the United States has kept markets on edge.

At the same time, New Zealand ANZ Consumer Confidence data and the ANZ Activity Outlook are scheduled for release later in the day, providing impetus for the NZD/USD pair.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5722. The near-term bias is muted as the pair holds below both the 20-period and 100-period Moving Averages (MAs), which trend lower and cap intraday rebounds near 0.5760 and 0.5839, respectively. Price action has carved out a sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the 0.5830 area, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the low-30s, signaling persistent downside momentum rather than oversold exhaustion. While minor bounces could emerge after the recent slide, the technical structure favors renewed selling interest on approaches to the descending short-term average.

Immediate resistance is now at 0.5723, where a nearby horizontal barrier coincides with the latest breakdown zone, followed by 0.5760 around the 20-period MA, then 0.5907 as a higher resistance level. On the downside, initial support sits at 0.5717, with further bearish extension opening the 0.5710 level and then the more distant 0.5699 area. A sustained break below 0.5699 would reinforce the prevailing downtrend and expose lower levels, while a recovery above 0.5760 would be needed to ease immediate selling pressure and allow a corrective move toward 0.5839.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)