Standard Chartered’s Senior Economist Tommy Wu raises Taiwan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 8.0% from 3.8%, citing strong Q4-2025 expansion and robust global semiconductor demand. The bank expects economic momentum to stay firm through 2026, supported by booming ICT and electronics exports and a recent US trade deal, while growth remains uneven and income disparity may widen.

AI-driven export boom lifts outlook

"We raise our 2026 GDP growth forecast to 8.0% (from 3.8%) following strong Q4-2025 growth of 12.7% y/y and 2025 growth of 8.7%. The forecast upgrade in part reflects Q4’s strong q/q growth momentum (at 5.4%). While we expect some statistical payback in Q1-2026 following Q4’s unusually high growth, economic momentum is likely to remain robust through 2026 as we expect global semiconductor demand to remain on an upcycle and support Taiwan’s exports."

"In fact, exports grew 70% y/y in January ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays in February (following 49.4% growth in Q4-2025), as shipments of ICT products and electronic components surged."

"Also, the recent trade deal with the US would provide a relief to exporters, given the US accounted for 30% of Taiwan’s exports."

"Growth will likely remain uneven and further widen the household income disparity."

"We continue to expect the CBC to maintain selective credit control measures to curb property-related borrowing."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)