• Improved risk appetite and lower oil volatility helped the Aussie advance.
• Fed caution and firm US inflation kept markets alert on rates.
• Australia’s jobs report now looms as the next key catalyst.

The Australian Dollar extended its gains on Wednesday, up by 0.72% as risk appetite improved amid speculation of a de-escalation of the conflict, keeping oil prices in check as WTI held above $91, despite posting losses of nearly 0.80%. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.7173.

Aussie gains as softer oil and RBA hike bets support the pair

Earlier, US President Donald Trump said the war was “close to over.” Rumors surfaced of a possible two-week ceasefire extension, according to Bloomberg, yet Trump said he does not believe it is needed, given the ongoing negotiations to end the war.

Aside from this, the US economic docket features the Federal Reserve Beige Book, which revealed that economic activity increased and employment remained steady even though the conflict in the Middle East was cited as a “major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture.”

Regarding inflation, the Fed’s Beige Book reported it remained moderate. Meanwhile, the latest US inflation data, particularly the March Producer Price Index (PPI), came in higher at 4%, keeping the Fed in check from shifting monetary policy for 2026.

Alberto Musalem from the St. Louis Fed said that “it’s likely” that higher oil prices might broaden into core inflation, which could push underlying inflation slightly below or around 3%.

In Australia, the docket will feature jobs data, with traders expecting 20K jobs added to the economy in March, and the Unemployment Rate s.a. forecast at 4.3%, unchanged.

A higher-than-expected print would exert pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is expected to tighten policy by at least 54 basis points towards the end of the year, implying two 25-bps rate hikes. For the next meeting, the odds are 66% that the RBA will raise rates.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7173, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the latest triple simple moving average cluster around 0.7037 and the most recent rising trend-line break at 0.7043. The Moving Average Triple (50, 100, 200, Simple) acting as underlying support suggests that dips are being absorbed, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at roughly 66 points to firm but not yet extreme buying momentum, hinting that the advance could extend as long as the pair stays above the mentioned support band.

On the downside, initial support is now seen at the 0.7043 trend-line break and the nearby 0.7037 simple moving average cluster, with a sustained move below this zone needed to weaken the constructive structure. On the topside, resistance is aligned first at the rising support trend line that now breaks around 0.7440, followed by the higher structural cap near 0.7685 and the broader downward resistance line stemming from 0.8015, which together define the next upside objectives if buyers keep control.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)