BNY’s Geoff Yu observes that while global equity indices have rebounded, institutional cash holdings remain below pre-conflict levels across all regions. Emerging Markets (EM) Americas show the highest recovery rate, helped by commodity exposure, while EM APAC (Asia-Pacific) lags due to previously crowded positions in Korean and Taiwanese equities. Yu sees significant sidelined institutional cash that could fuel another risk rally if conflict news improves.

Institutional cash lags price rebound

"Equity market levels may have rebounded strongly globally, but there is a major difference between the price gains and the level of cash holdings by institutional investors. Based on the latter criterion, all regions have yet to recover their holdings from pre-conflict levels. This supports the view, given our custody client bias, that retail investors continue to drive flow interest, whereas institutional investors will require far greater certainty regarding a durable ceasefire."

"Measured by the “recovery rate,” EM Americas are closest to hitting pre-conflict highs, but there wasn’t much movement in the first place. The performance is similar to what we have observed in the region’s FX and fixed income markets."

"EM APAC, led by Korean and Taiwanese equities, is the outlier among all regions. As these markets were the extreme outliers in performance before the conflict, the risk of a large correction was always high, along with the amount of price and flow improvement to recover to pre-conflict levels."

"Institutional investors may be on the sidelines due to geopolitical views rather than earnings outcomes, but there is a real risk that these managers fall meaningfully below benchmark and are “stopped in.”"

"This means that there is significant cash on the sidelines that can fuel another risk rally, but the bar for more “good news” on the conflict is high."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)