EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates above 1.1600 as Iran risks, hawkish Fed support USD

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EUR/USD bulls seem hesitant as geopolitical uncertainties and Fed rate hike bets underpin the USD.
The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful downfall.
A sustained strength beyond the 50% Fibo. is needed to negate the near-term negative outlook.

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the 1.1585-1.1580 region, or its lowest level since April 7, and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices, however, manage to hold above the 1.1600 mark as traders await further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis.

Despite renewed hopes for a de-escalation in the Iran conflict, investors remain skeptical about a US-Iran peace deal amid major disagreements over Tehran's nuclear program and a standoff over the critical Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, hawkish FOMC Minutes reaffirmed bets for an interest rate hike in 2026, which helps limit the US Dollar's (USD) corrective pullback from a six-week low and acts as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices maintain a bearish near-term bias beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April upswing. Adding to this, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the low-40s, hinting at subdued upside momentum. However, the overnight resilience below the 61.8% Fibo. level warrants some caution for the EUR/USD bears.

Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) (12, 26, close, 9) stabilizes slightly above the zero line with modest positive readings. This suggests that recent downside pressure is easing but not yet reversing the broader capped tone. Hence, any subsequent slide might continue to find support at the 61.8% Fibo. around 1.1591; a break there would expose the 78.6% level at 1.1522 ahead of the structural floor near 1.1433.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement at 1.1640, followed by the 38.2% Fibo. near 1.1689, with the 200-period SMA at 1.1712 and the 23.6% retracement at 1.1749 reinforcing a dense supply zone higher up.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.01%	-0.80%	0.14%	0.08%	0.31%	-0.31%	0.03%
EUR	0.01%		-0.81%	0.22%	0.08%	0.30%	-0.24%	0.01%
GBP	0.80%	0.81%		0.98%	0.89%	1.12%	0.57%	0.81%
JPY	-0.14%	-0.22%	-0.98%		-0.12%	0.09%	-0.51%	-0.16%
CAD	-0.08%	-0.08%	-0.89%	0.12%		0.23%	-0.39%	-0.10%
AUD	-0.31%	-0.30%	-1.12%	-0.09%	-0.23%		-0.54%	-0.20%
NZD	0.31%	0.24%	-0.57%	0.51%	0.39%	0.54%		0.23%
CHF	-0.03%	-0.01%	-0.81%	0.16%	0.10%	0.20%	-0.23%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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