Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report EUR/USD trading softer near 1.1711, extending its recent downward drift as markets weigh US–Iran tensions and UK political risks alongside German reform uncertainty. Euro area GDP and industrial production met or slightly missed expectations, while French unemployment rose above 8%. They note spread support loss has stabilized, opening potential for near-term consolidation around key Fibonacci levels.

Euro softness and range signals

"The EUR is soft and extending its downward drift, entering Wednesday’s NA session with a 0.3% decline vs. the USD."

"Sentiment remains critical as market participants balance the US/Iran conflict with fresh political uncertainty in the UK and consider the German government’s halting attempts at reform."

"The recent loss of spread support looks to have stabilized, offering the potential for near-term consolidation in the EUR."

"Neutral – the RSI is firmly back at the neutral threshold following the EUR’s latest pullback from its recent highs around 1.18."

"The medium-term range is defined by the Jan-March decline with near-term focus centered around key fibo levels offering support (38.2% at 1.1667), resistance (61.8% at 1.1825) and congestion."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)