OCBC’s Christopher Wong says recent surprise hikes and FX measures from Bank Indonesia have restored some confidence in the Rupiah. He warns that a less hawkish BI or a negative FOMC surprise could sap IDR momentum, but a firm policy tone with easing external pressures could see USD/IDR extend lower toward identified Fibonacci and moving-average support levels.

BI stance key for Rupiah path

"USDIDR. Watch BI. BI has shown greater urgency in recent weeks."

"The surprise 50bp hike in May, followed by an off cycle 25bp hike last week, while higher SRBI yields and continued FX measures have helped restore some confidence."

"The main risks are the FOMC decision and BI policy action/ communication this week. If BI stays on hold or sounds less hawkish, it could take some momentum out of IDR."

"But if BI keeps a firm tone, alongside external pressure easing, then there is room for USDIDR to extend lower."

"Spot last at 17703 levels. Daily momentum turned bearish while RSI fell. Next support at 17620 (38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high), 17430/450 levels (50 DMA, 50% fibo). Resistance at 17838 (23.6% fibo), 17950 levels."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)