Societe Generale economists flag rising political risk around Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of 7 May local elections. A weak result could trigger a leadership challenge, though the lack of a clear successor may delay moves until the September conference. Betting markets assign roughly a two‑thirds chance that Starmer leaves office by end‑2026.

Leadership challenge risk after local elections

"On the political front, Prime Minister Keir Starmer survived a vote on whether he should be investigated for misleading Parliament over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador."

"This week in the UK, markets will be laser-focused on the 7 May local elections."

"A poor result could act as a catalyst for a leadership challenge, although this is far from guaranteed."

"Moreover, any leadership challenge may not be immediate, with risks potentially extending through to the September party conference."

"Betting markets currently price the implied probability of Starmer leaving office by end-2026 at around 66%."

"News reports have speculated that there will be a cabinet reshuffle after the local elections."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)