United States Dollar Index (DXY) flatlines around 99.00 amid mixed news from Iran

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The US Dollar (USD) is trading sideways against its main peers on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Dollar against a basket of peers, flatlines around 99.00 at the time of writing, halfway through the weekly range, with investors awaiting clarity from Iran’s war.

The US Dollar consolidates around 99.00 halfway through the weekly range.
Contradictory news from Iran is keeping investors on edge this week.
US PCE Price Index data, due on Thursday, might set the Greenback's near-term direction.

Tehran accused the US of a grave violation of the ceasefire and vowed retaliation after attacks in southern Iran, which were considered “defensive” by US authorities. On Wednesday, Iranian officials said that these attacks validate their distrust of America and the resolution to stand firm on their demands.

Hopes of a negotiated end to the conflict, however, remain alive as Iranian leaders analyse the latest peace proposal from the US. On Wednesday, a spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that the renewal of hostilities against the US remains an unlikely option, but warned that they stand ready to react against any attack.

On the macroeconomic front, US Consumer Confidence data showed a slight deterioration in May, amid higher inflation from the war in Iran and a more pessimistic view about employment. Investors, however, are likely to await Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures to shed some more light on the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate path, and set the US Dollar’s near-term direction.

Economic Indicator

Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Price changes may cause consumers to switch from buying one good to another and the PCE Deflator can account for such substitutions. This makes it the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.

Economic Indicator

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures." Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.

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