USD/CAD Price Forecast: Wobbles near 1.3660 ahead of US NFP data

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The USD/CAD pair trades in a tight range around 1.3660 during the European trading session on Friday. The Loonie pair consolidates as the US Dollar wobbles ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for February, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.

USD/CAD consolidates around 1.3660 as investors await the US NFP data.
The US employment data is expected to significantly influence market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
Both the US Dollar and the CAD remain broadly firm amid the Iran conflict.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, wobbles around 99.00

Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP data to get fresh cues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The US NFP report is expected to show that the economy created 59K fresh jobs, significantly lower than 130K in January. The Unemployment Rate is seen steady at 4.3%.

Meanwhile, the broader outlook of the US Dollar remains firm amid the war in the Middle East involving the US, Israel, and Iran. Middle East conflicts have prompted the demand for safe-haven assets.

Amid the Iran conflict, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been performing strongly due to rising oil prices. Given that Canada is the largest exporter of oil to the US, higher oil prices are a favorable situation for the Canadian Dollar.

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD trades flat at around 1.3660 at the press time. The near-term bias is neutral as spot remains close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around 1.3665.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sharp volatility contraction.

Initial support emerges at the February 18 low of 1.3632, guarding the recent 1.3558–1.3559 area that underpins the February base and defines the lower edge of the current range. A break below this band would expose the spot to the February 11 low of 1.3500 and signal that sellers are regaining control. On the topside, immediate resistance is at the March 3 high of 1.3750, where a daily close above would be needed to shift the bias back toward the upside and open the way toward the January 23 high of 1.3800.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Nonfarm Payrolls

The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

Why it matters to traders?

America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.

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