Fed’s Barkin sees rates near neutral, offers no December signal

Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Tom Barkin said that “government, not consumer debt is at a historic level.” He added that there’s “no base case” regarding interest rates for the December meeting. The statements were made during a speech at the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce in South Carolina.

Barkin suggested that the “current policy rate [is] likely around or slightly below neutral” and that the last job report was healthy, but that he stills see a low-hire, low-fire environment.

Аналитика TMGM: новости финансовых рынков, экономический календарь и рыночные инсайты

Key highlights:

Government debt, not consumer debt is at historic level

No base case for December meeting

Hard to know impact of elections on the economy

Current policy rate likely around or slightly below neutral

Would an advantage if each Fed policy meeting were set to include two full months of economic data

Last jobs report was healthy but still see firms in low-hire, low-fire environment.

I do not think ballot measures approved in recent elections will impede data center expansion, firms will find somewhere to build

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.56%	-0.55%	-0.30%	0.07%	-0.69%	-1.45%	0.04%
EUR	0.56%		0.01%	0.27%	0.63%	-0.14%	-0.89%	0.60%
GBP	0.55%	-0.01%		0.28%	0.61%	-0.15%	-0.90%	0.59%
JPY	0.30%	-0.27%	-0.28%		0.35%	-0.41%	-1.17%	0.32%
CAD	-0.07%	-0.63%	-0.61%	-0.35%		-0.76%	-1.51%	-0.02%
AUD	0.69%	0.14%	0.15%	0.41%	0.76%		-0.75%	0.74%
NZD	1.45%	0.89%	0.90%	1.17%	1.51%	0.75%		1.50%
CHF	-0.04%	-0.60%	-0.59%	-0.32%	0.02%	-0.74%	-1.50%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Fed FAQs

What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar?

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD?

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

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