• GBP/USD drops as Iran-related headlines boosts oil prices, support the US Dollar.
• Strong US Factory Orders reinforced the Greenback’s early-week recovery.
• UK holiday-thinned trading left Sterling vulnerable to geopolitical swings.

GBP/USD falls on Monday as tensions in the Middle East remain high as Iran threatens US Navy to not enter the Strait of Hormuz, amid growing speculation that Tehran’s launched missiles to a US warship. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.3531, slightly down 0.34%.

Sterling softens as Iran headlines revive haven demand for USD

Iranian media reported that the regime targeted a US ship, yet Axios —citing a US senior official—denied the US attack. Despite this, and Trump’s comments over the weekend that the US could restart strikes on Iran, if “they misbehave,” puts the ceasefire into question.

As of writing, Iranian media revealed footage of “warning shots” against US Navy destroyers entering the Strait of Hormuz.

Data-wise, US Factory Orders exceeded estimates of a 0.5% increase in March, rising 1.5% MoM from 0.3% in February.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against six currencies, is up 0.19% to 98.39, a headwind for Sterling, which is also feeling the pain of UK markets being closed for a public holiday.

The Greenback is extending its gains as the UAE revealed that fire broke out at petroleum facilities after an Iranian drone attack, pushing oil prices higher, particularly WTI.

The correlation between Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) and the Greenback remains positive, meaning that if the US crude oil benchmark rises, the US Dollar would follow suit.

Ahead of the US economic docket, the New York Fed President John Williams will deliver a speech, followed by Tuesday’s release of the ISM Services PMI. Across the pond, the schedule is absent for the first two days of the week.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3532, maintaining a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above the clustered simple moving averages around 1.3413 and within the broader rising support structure. The upward-sloping trend line drawn from the 1.3035 area continues to underpin the advance, while the latest bounce away from the prior downtrend resistance line hints that sellers are losing control at lower levels, even as broader sentiment remains sensitive to shifts in the Fed-related backdrop reflected in the Fed Sentiment Index.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen near the former uptrend break area around 1.3920, with the descending resistance line anchored at 1.3869 reinforcing a wider supply band should bulls extend the move. On the downside, initial support is expected on shallow pullbacks towards the triple simple moving average cluster near 1.3413, ahead of deeper structural demand at the rising trend-line region derived from the 1.3035 origin and, further below, the 1.2885 zone tied to the prior downtrend break price.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)