AUD/USD Price Forecast: Sees more upside above three-year high of around 0.7150

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The AUD/USD pair trades in a tight range around 0.7075 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair consolidates as investors await the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes at 19:00 GMT and the Australian employment data for January on Thursday.

AUD/USD wobbles around 0.7075 ahead of Fed policy minutes and the Australian employment data.
The US Dollar trades higher ahead of the FOMC Minutes release.
Economists expect the Australian economy to have created fewer jobs in January.

Ahead of the FOMC minutes release, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.2% to near 97.30.

Investors will pay close attention to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) January meeting minutes to get fresh cues on the monetary policy outlook.

Meanwhile, the Australian employment data is expected to show that the economy created 20K fresh jobs, lower than 65.2K in December. The Unemployment Rate is seen higher at 4.2% from the previous reading of 4.1%. Signs of cooling Australian labor demand would weigh on market expectations for more interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the near term.

In the policy meeting earlier this month, the RBA hiked its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85%, and kept the room open for further monetary policy tightening.

AUD/USD technical analysis

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades flat at around 0.7075 at the press time. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rises and trails price, underscoring an established uptrend. Spot holds above the average at 0.6999, keeping pullbacks contained and trend conditions intact.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 64 (bullish) after easing from prior overbought readings, confirming momentum still favors the topside.

Dips toward the rising 20-day EMA at 0.6999 would be supported, and sustained acceptance above it would keep the path of least resistance higher. The pair could advance the current uptrend towards 0.7200 if it breaks above the three-year high of around 0.7150.

On the contrary, a daily close below the average would dent bullish momentum, and the RSI could drift toward its midline, pointing to range development before the next directional push.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Employment Change s.a.

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. The statistic is adjusted to remove the influence of seasonal trends. Generally speaking, a rise in Employment Change has positive implications for consumer spending, stimulates economic growth, and is bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). A low reading, on the other hand, is seen as bearish.