HSBC argues that the Pound is more exposed to downside risks following Prime Minister Starmer’s resignation and the ensuing UK leadership contest. The bank highlights a less supportive macro backdrop, with UK–US 2-year spreads narrowing to near zero, a Bank of England hold at 3.75% expected through year-end, and deteriorating fiscal optics likely weighing on GBP in coming months.

Politics and macro headwinds for Pound

"In the UK, Prime Minister Starmer’s resignation has shifted market focus to the leadership contest and the policy direction of the next Prime Minister. With limited clarity, the GBP appears more exposed to downside risks than positioned for upside relief. Candidates must declare by 9 July."

"If favourite, Andy Burnham (Polymarket, 22 June) is unchallenged, a swift transition could see him in office by 16 July."

"Beyond politics, the macro backdrop is less supportive. UK-US 2-year rate differentials have narrowed sharply, from c66bp in April to roughly 0bp, reducing the carry support that has helped underpin the GBP. This reflects the Fed’s hawkish shift (17 June) versus a cautious Bank of England (BoE) hold at 3.75%, with our economists expecting the BoE to remain on hold through year-end."

"Fiscal optics have also deteriorated, with government borrowing exceeding the UK Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast for a second consecutive month. All these factors are likely to weigh on GBP in the months ahead."

"UK leadership uncertainty leaves the GBP more exposed to the downside."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)