ECB Accounts: Governing Council confident in inflation outlook despite uncertainty

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The publication of the Accounts of the European Central Bank's (ECB) February monetary policy meeting highlights the Governing Council's relative confidence regarding inflation trends, while emphasising that the environment remains marked by uncertainty.

Key takeaways

Incoming data as broadly confirming the narrative and baseline inflation outlook embedded in the December staff projections.

The ECB was currently in a good place from a monetary policy point of view, but this did not mean that the stance was to be seen as static.

Recent shocks had been unfolding and were becoming more visible, broadly in line with expectations.

None of the risks identified had materialised to the extent that they would meaningfully affect the inflation outlook.

Uncertainty could also justify keeping interest rates unchanged to see how various risks developed over the coming months.

Near-term inflation was likely to fall further below target than previously anticipated.

Current level of policy rates provided sufficient flexibility to act in response to shocks.

It had no particular implications for the medium-term inflation outlook.

Governing council could be patient, although this should not be mistaken for being hesitant to act or being asymmetric.

Recent growth momentum did not pose upside risks to the baseline inflation outlook.

Most members viewed the risks surrounding the inflation outlook as two-sided and saw the distribution of risks around the baseline as relatively unchanged.

Market reaction

EUR/USD falls 0.17% on Thursday, trading around 1.1620 at the time of writing, with very little impact from the ECB Accounts release.

Economic Indicator

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts contain an overview of financial market, economic and monetary developments. It's followed by a summary of the discussion, in an unattributed form, on the economic and monetary analyses and on the monetary policy stance. The accounts offer a fair and balanced reflection of policy deliberations. The aim is to provide the rationale behind monetary policy decisions and enable members of the public to improve their understanding of the Governing Council’s assessment of the economy and its policy responses in the light of evolving conditions.