EUR/USD Price Forecast: 1.1655 acts as key barrier for Euro bulls

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The EUR/USD pair trades 0.18% lower to near 1.1635 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) resumes its upside journey amid firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates this year.

EUR/USD declines to near 1.1635 as the US Dollar outperforms its peers.
The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates this year.
Investors await FOMC minutes and the flash Eurozone/US PMI data.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.15%	0.17%	0.10%	0.07%	0.57%	0.36%	0.16%
EUR	-0.15%		0.02%	-0.04%	-0.07%	0.42%	0.23%	0.01%
GBP	-0.17%	-0.02%		-0.06%	-0.09%	0.39%	0.19%	-0.01%
JPY	-0.10%	0.04%	0.06%		-0.03%	0.46%	0.27%	0.05%
CAD	-0.07%	0.07%	0.09%	0.03%		0.49%	0.29%	0.09%
AUD	-0.57%	-0.42%	-0.39%	-0.46%	-0.49%		-0.19%	-0.40%
NZD	-0.36%	-0.23%	-0.19%	-0.27%	-0.29%	0.19%		-0.22%
CHF	-0.16%	-0.01%	0.01%	-0.05%	-0.09%	0.40%	0.22%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.17% higher to near 99.15.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the possibility of the Fed holding interest rates at their current levels by the year-end is 53%, while the rest favors at least one interest rate hike this year. This is a sharp turnaround from two interest rate cuts anticipated before the onset of the war in the Middle East. Traders have priced out the possibility of Fed interest rate cuts this year due to elevated energy prices.

Going forward, major triggers for the shared currency pair will be Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the April policy meeting and the preliminary Eurozone/US private sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May, which will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD trades lower at around 1.1635 at press time. The pair maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1696. The overall trend has also turned bearish due to the Double Top breakdown below 1.1655.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 43 shows weak but not extreme downside momentum.

On the topside, the 20-day EMA at 1.1696 is the first notable resistance that bulls would need to reclaim to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a more sustained rebound towards the May 12 low of 1.1722. Looking down, the pair could extend its decline towards the April 7 low of 1.1524 if it fails to hold 1.1600.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

FOMC Minutes

FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

Why it matters to traders?

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.

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