ING’s Chris Turner highlights a Financial Times report suggesting Christine Lagarde could leave the ECB before her term ends in October 2027, with succession politics linked to French elections. Markets are watching potential successors Pablo Hernandez de Cos and Joachim Nagel. With Asia holidays and light data, ING expects EUR/USD to hold in a tight intraday range.

Lagarde succession chatter, tight EUR/USD band

"Early Europe has seen the Financial Times report that Christine Lagarde could exit her position as President of the European Central Bank ahead of its natural expiry in October 2027. The reasons cited point to a preference for the next ECB president to be confirmed before the French presidential elections next April, so that Emmanuel Macron can still have a say. Expect focus to shift to two of the leading candidates to replace Lagarde: Spain's Pablo Hernandez de Cos and Germany's Joachim Nagel, who has even recently welcomed additional common borrowing in the EU."

"It looks too early for this story to impact the euro yet."

"With Asia on holiday for the rest of the week and the data calendar relatively light today, expect EUR/USD to trace out a modest 1.1800-1.1850 range. We will also be interested to hear which foreign central banks are signing up to the ECB's expanded EUREP facility – something which, in theory, should be happening over the next three to four months."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)