Rabobank’s Global Daily notes that the EU has formally launched accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova while simultaneously hardening its stance toward China. With EU officials accusing China of training Russian troops and considering sanctions and tariffs, the bank argues that an EU shift closer to the US China policy could have significant implications for EUR/USD via trade and growth channels.

EU accession and China trade stance

"The EU officially launched a Ukraine and Moldova accession process, as Moscow once again escalates its attacks on Kyiv."

"Obviously, this process could run for years, but like Hormuz, it is a development of vast geostrategic significance."

"That’s as the EU’s Kallas claimed China trained Russian troops and the Union is weighing sanctions and tariffs."

"Four days ago, The Economist argued, ‘A trade war between the EU and China seems inevitable’: some said the same four years ago."

"While the EU perhaps following the US stance towards China might not be as market-moving as the original (and sustained) US effort, it is hugely significant for the physical economy."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)