Rabobank argues that the European Commission’s forthcoming push for a Savings and Investment Union and capital markets union, alongside Sweden’s possible reconsideration of EMU membership, are structurally supportive for the Euro. However, the bank stresses that integration steps will be gradual, and Sweden’s formal evaluation would only start after its September election.

Integration agenda and Sweden’s EMU option

"Earlier this month, news wires reported that the European Commission will in March present a plan which will include a push towards capital markets union. EC President von der Leyen stated that by June it wanted to have a plan for phase one of the Savings and Investment Union."

"This would help unleash around EUR10 trn of cash savings into more productive investments. It would also cover “market integration, supervision and securitisation.”"

"She also stated that if there is not sufficient progress by then, that the EC will consider moving ahead in a tiered way, initially with at least nine member states."

"Sweden recently joined NATO and the change in geopolitical risks has been cited as a potential trigger for Sweden seeking monetary unity with the Eurozone."

"As a result of its strong fundamentals and the positive message on integration that would be implied, Sweden’s entry into EMU would likely be seen as a positive EUR factor."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)