• Strong US Retail Sales and firmer labor data lifted the Dollar.
• UK jobs data was solid, but wage growth continued to cool.
• Traders now await UK CPI and US jobless claims for direction

GBP/USD retreats, losing 0.18%, as the US Dollar recovers following a solid US Retail Sales report. Data in the UK reveals the labor market remains solid, while traders digest headlines from the Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, at the US Senate. The pair trades at 1.3507, after reaching a daily high of 1.3539.

Sterling eases despite firm UK jobs data and Warsh headlines

Market mood is mixed, though US equities are positive, underpinned by strong earnings reports. Speculation about a possible end to the conflict between the US and Iran looms, yet Tehran has yet to confirm  its assistance for the talks in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Data from the US showed that Retail Sales rose by 1.7% MoM in March, up from 0.7% and exceeding forecasts of 0.4%. Higher gasoline prices led to a surge in tickets at gas stations, while tax refunds underpinned spending. Yearly, sales increased 4%, matching the prior month’s reading.

Earlier, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average improved from 39K in the previous print to 54.8K, an indication of strength in the jobs market.

In the UK, the Unemployment Rate fell from 5.2% to 4.9%, though most of the data suggested that this was due to a rising number of students not looking for a job. Average Earnings excluding bonuses in the 3-month rollover until March stood at 3.6% YoY, down from 3.8% in the previous month, indicating that the labor market would not be the driver of inflationary pressure.

Political turmoil in the UK could depreciate Sterling amid rumors that a former UK official was tasked with clearing Peter Mandelson’s clearance to become US ambassador from the Prime Minister’s office.

Meanwhile, the Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh noted that he does not believe in forward guidance, adding that both interest rates and the balance sheet are important tools. He has reiterated the Fed’s independence, adding that the US President Trump never asked him to commit to any rate decision.

Ahead, the US docket will feature jobless claims data. In the UK, traders will be entertained by the release of March inflation data, with estimates of Core CPI to remain unchanged at 3.2% YoY from February’s, and CPI to rise from 3% to 3.3% YoY for the same period.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3505, holding above the clustered simple moving averages around 1.3419 and keeping a constructive near-term bias. Price action remains supported by this underlying moving average base, while the broader downward resistance line drawn from the 1.3869 region still looms overhead and hints that gains could increasingly meet supply as the pair approaches the mid‑1.38s.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen near the former uptrend break zone around 1.3850, followed closely by the descending trend line originating at 1.3869, which together define a dense cap for any extension higher. On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the latest close around 1.3505, with a deeper cushion provided by the triple simple moving average cluster near 1.3419, where buyers would be expected to re‑emerge if a corrective pullback develops.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)