Japanese Yen: Stablisation seen as BoJ tightens gradually – BNP Paribas
Ni FXStreet Insights Team
Na-update: 26 May 2026
Sikat na Artikulo
BNP Paribas expects Japan’s GDP growth to slow to 0.5% in 2026 from 1.1% in 2025 as higher inflation and production costs weigh on activity. The Bank of Japan is projected to continue normalising policy, with a 25 bp hike in Q2 2026 and a terminal rate of 2.0% by end-2027.
BNP Paribas expects Japan’s GDP growth to slow to 0.5% in 2026 from 1.1% in 2025 as higher inflation and production costs weigh on activity. The Bank of Japan is projected to continue normalising policy, with a 25 bp hike in Q2 2026 and a terminal rate of 2.0% by end-2027. In FX, USD/JPY is expected to stabilise around 160 by Q4 2026 and in 2027.
Yen stabilisation with gradual BoJ hikes
"We expect annual GDP growth to stand at 0.5% in 2026, down from 1.1% in 2025."
"Inflation has generally overshot the 2% y/y target since 2022 and is expected to stay there through at least 2028."
"Accordingly, the Bank of Japan initiated a process of “adjustment in the degree of monetary accommodation” in 2024, lifting the policy rate to 0.75% so far (previously negative)."
"We expect the process to extend, including one hike (25pb) in Q2 2026, until a 2.0% terminal rate in end-2027."
"We anticipate stabilisation of the yen and the GBP against the dollar in 2026 (USD/JPY 160 and GBP/USD 1.35 by Q4 2026) and 2027."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Higit sa isang milyong user ang umaasa sa FXStreet para sa real-time market data, charting tools, expert insights, at Forex news. Ang komprehensibong economic calendar at educational webinars nito ay tumutulong sa mga trader na manatiling may alam at gumawa ng kalkuladong mga desisyon. Sinusuportahan ang FXStreet ng humigit-kumulang 60 propesyonal sa pagitan ng Barcelona HQ at iba’t ibang rehiyon sa buong mundo.
Magbasa pa
