Commerzbank’s Lay and Lim discuss speculation that the PBoC may pivot toward using the overnight repo rate as its main policy tool, further aligning with the Federal Reserve’s framework. They note strong January credit growth driven by seasonal factors and front‑loaded government bond issuance.

Policy pivot talk as Yuan firms

"Speculation is mounting that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) may pivot toward the overnight repurchase rate as its primary policy tool. This will further align its framework with the US Federal Reserve. This sentiment intensified after the PBOC’s latest monthly report prioritized money market developments over bond market analysis and introduced a direct comparison between overnight repo rates and the 7-day reverse repo rate (7D RRP)."

"Such a shift builds on a previous quarterly pledge to stabilize short-term rates around the policy target and continues the trend of anchoring policy to shorter tenors."

"In 2024, the PBOC formally designated the 7D RRP as its primary policy rate, replacing the medium-term lending facility. A further shift toward the overnight repo rate would represent the next step in this evolution and align China’s operational framework more closely with global peers, particularly the Federal Reserve."

"Credit growth was strong in January and rose to CNY4.7tn vs CNY5.1tn in the same period in 2025. This was largely due to strong seasonal effects, as banks sought to extend loans to fulfill newly allocated loan quotas. However, household and business sector loan growth remained muted, signaling a soft credit demand growth and persistently weak economic sentiment."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)