Ripple Price Forecast: XRP recovery runs into headwinds amid fading retail and institutional interest

• XRP struggles to gain momentum above the recently reclaimed $1.30 support on Monday.
• US-listed XRP spot ETFs recorded weekly net outflows for the first time in 14 weeks, while cooling derivatives activity weighs on the recovery outlook.
• XRP faces a weak technical structure defined by a bearish RSI and a persistent MACD sell signal.

Ripple (XRP) holds slightly above $1.30 on Monday, with short-term recovery prospects fading. Strong structural resistance toward $1.40 continues to cap upside, raising the risk of further downside below $1.30.

Appetite for digital assets, as in recent weeks, has taken a back seat, as reflected in the crypto Fear & Greed Index at 59 in the Greed territory, up from 53 in the Neutral range the previous day. Broadly, the index has declined from last month’s 71 average, undermining investor risk-on sentiment.

XRP ETFs resume outflows as derivatives activity slows

News last week that inflation in the United States (US) continued to accelerate in September compared to August spooked many investors, prompting possible reassessment of portfolios and risk exposure. US-listed spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded net $1.8 million in outflows last week, the first in 14 weeks, according to SoSoValue.

That said, this shift in flows alone is not enough to confirm a bearish trend. Therefore, this week’s outlook will provide more insight into the direction XRP spot ETFs will take. Moreover, cumulative inflows remain positive at $1.8 billion, with net assets under management at $1.5 billion.

The derivatives market mirrors the fading market sentiment, as perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) averages 2.17 billion XRP on Monday, down from 2.34 billion on October 1. Although gradual, the steady softening in retail demand indicates less tailwind to sustain the recovery. In other words, traders increasingly lack confidence in XRP’s outlook, with many closing positions as OI drops.

Technical analysis: XRP leans bearish despite short-term support

XRP trades above $1.30, extending a bearish near‑term tone as price holds beneath the key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 100‑day EMA at $1.34 is the first cap overhead, while the 200‑day EMA and the 50‑day EMA at $1.38 form a dense resistance band higher up, reinforcing a market that remains pressured below its medium‑term trend gauges.

Momentum indicators echo this stance, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 37 and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in negative territory, suggesting lingering downside risk despite a lack of clear structural support levels from the current tool set.

Immediate resistance lies at the 100‑day EMA around $1.34, where a daily close above would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure. Further north, the overlapping 200‑day EMA and the 50‑day EMA at $1.38 define a stronger supply zone, while the SuperTrend line at $1.47 marks a more distant bullish recovery hurdle. As long as XRP trades below this stack of resistance levels, rallies are likely to face selling interest and the broader downside bias remains intact.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)