ING economists Valentin Tataru and Stefan Posea describe Romania’s shift from a consumption-driven, labour‑intensive model toward a capital‑intensive, productivity‑based economy. They expect weak GDP growth in 2026 and a modest recovery in 2027, with automation and AI adoption allowing higher output without proportional employment gains and limiting broad‑based job creation even in future upswings.

Structural slowdown with tech-driven adjustment

"Over the past year, Romania’s macroeconomic landscape has shifted quickly. Economic growth, which was previously driven by consumption, is now being constrained by fiscal tightening, weaker domestic demand and a cooling labour market. While part of this adjustment reflects the economic cycle, the slowdown also points to a deeper structural shift: firms are increasingly relying on automation and artificial intelligence to boost productivity."

"This adjustment looks set to continue in 2026, when we expect GDP to grow only 0.6%. A more meaningful recovery, around 2.8%, is likely in 2027 as inflation moderates, monetary policy eases, and EU‑funded projects materialise. Yet even with higher GDP, job creation may not follow past patterns."

"During the current slowdown, firms are embedding automation and AI into their operations. When demand recovers, they might be able to increase output using the newly implemented technological capacity rather than launching broad hiring waves. The historical relationship between GDP growth and job creation could be weakening as we speak."

"This is not necessarily negative. Romania faces a shrinking and ageing workforce and productivity gains are essential to sustaining growth and living standards. The current adjustment represents a necessary transition from a consumption-driven, labour-intensive model towards a more capital-intensive, productivity-based economy."

"In the near term, weak job creation and subdued real incomes will remain a constraint. At a deeper level, however, Romania is undergoing a structural transition away from a labour‑intensive growth model. As firms rely more on technology, automation, and higher‑value activities, economic growth will increasingly be driven by higher output per worker rather than by absorbing more workers."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)